NL West: The battle for worst regular season record to make the playoffs begins and ends here. You can't throw a quarter without hitting a team that could win this division by being two games over .500. The Dodgers had a 19-24 record in 1-run games, managed to lose most of their starting pitching, have so far failed to sign Manny Ramirez, but hey, Jason Schmidt is back for a third year. Maybe he can go for two wins this time. Love you, Joe, but you guys are the 2008 Padres. Speaking of which, how dedicated do you think Peavy is right now? The Fathers had 99 losses in '08, and then proceeded to get worse. Best indicators: 16-28 (2nd worst in the majors) in 1-run games, and then for defense, traded Khalil Greene for Mark Worrell, leaving them with a defensive platoon of Luis Rodriguez and Everth Cabrera at short. Hello, ground ball pitching staff. Enjoy that one. Rockies continue to spiral downward, trading Matt Holliday away and leaving big questions at center, left and closer. This looks like a bad offensive line-up, which is saying something when you play 81 games in Denver. The Giants are making a lot of noise in the offseason, but then not actually signing any of the guys they clamor for. Think of them as the guy that drives up bidding at an auction, and then leaves empty-handed. Pablo Sandoval was inpressive towards the end of last season, so watch for good production from him, but a team that ranked 15th out of 16 teams in walks will not get over the hump, even if Barry Zito remembers how to pitch. The one positive sign is that the Giants were 31-21 in one-run games, but that is more a reflection of pitching than anything else. Watch for that number to reverse if they don't figure out how to get on base, or suddenly sign Manny. The Diamondbacks are the most compelling team. Still the best starting rotation in baseball. Last year's team ERA was a 3.98, and this year we'll see a lot more of Max Scherzer, who had 66 strikeouts in 56 games last year. Some of the young guys are starting to come into their own, and with another year to grow up, maybe they don't collapse under the pressure of a tight race, and play more like professionals. Maybe Jon Rauch will pitch more like he did in Washinton, avoiding the 6.56 ERA, which might give them the two wins they need to beat LA. Winner: Diamondbacks.
NL Central: Wow, I can really spend a lot of time breaking down the Pirates. HAHAHAAA! Whew, that was a good one. The Pirates were a slim pick last season, and the only thing that got fatter this year is Pedro Alvarez. The only hope there is if he took in some of Mo Vaughn's skills when he ate him during the off-season. The Brew Crew lost two starters, and are now anchoring their rotation with Jeff Suppan, Dave Bush and Chris Capuano. Now, with the hitters they have in their line-up, they could surprise, but I wouldn't count on it. Watch for them to be more like the Brewers we all love: Stomped. Oh, and as a side note, F-You, Selig. Everyone seems to forget that the Astros made a pretty strong run last season. However, they do that a lot. They also depleted their farm system, failed in their bid to get Randy Wolf, and signed Aaron Bleepin' Boone. From watching their hitters last year, we can all agree on one thing: None of these guys is using steroids. Their starting catcher finished the season batting .137. I think I might be able to do that. The Reds are improving methodically, at least on paper. Trouble is, Dusty Baker doesn't believe in what shows up on paper. So he'll run Taveras out at lead-off so he can strike out all season long, get nobody on base, run his pitchers into the ground, finish last, and go back to broadcasting. Remember folks, you heard it here first: 1-and-done for Dusty. The Cardinals will contend, because they are the Cards, and it's what they do. They have a great farm system, Dave Duncan handles pitchers incredibly well, a problem with too many potential closers, and oh yeah, the best player in baseball in Albert Pujols. Maybe Chris Carpenter stops being Kevin Brown (20 1/3 innings at $19 million), and they can contend the whole season. Saving the best for last: The Cubs. Oh, you lovable losers. The Cubbies should have the easiest road in the Majors to the post-season. They added Milton Bradley to give a little more left-handed power, finally cut ties with Kerry Wood, still have D-Lee and Ramirez, can still trot out a hellacious rotation, and now look to Kevin Gregg to close. NOTHING stand in these guys way. Except that they are the Cubs. I'm setting the over/under on Rich Harden's first injury as April 7th. Who's in? Winner: Cubs.
NL East: Say what you will about the East, it is the only division with a sure thing: The Nats will finish last. They will be the worst team in baseball. Jim Bowden has made Bill Bavasi look like Theo Epstein this year. Picked up Daniel Cabrera, Scott Olson and Josh Willingham. Your team loses 102 games and the only competition you have in spring training is between Ronnie Belliard and Anderson Hernandez at second base? 20-29 in one-run games, so make Joel Hanrahan (who?) your closer? I'd love to read the long-term plan here. Probably reads like Ulysses: incomprehensible. The Braves missed out on most of their big off-season goals, but can still put a competitive rotation on the field. Unfortunately, the team that scores more runs wins 100% of the games, and unless 37-year-old Chipper "The Entire Offense" Jones can manufacture an additional 40 runs this year, they will not compete. The Marlins have a lot of young talent, but none of them are settled in a position except for Hanley Ramirez. I imagine the line-up being decided daily by a game of musical chairs, to the tune of "At least we aren't the Nationals." Jefrey Loria probably has the same kind of plan he had in Montreal: Build up young players for cheap, never sign anyone to a long-term deal, and then bitch about losing money. See you next year, Florida. Maybe. The Phillies are the defending World Champions, but gave up Pat Burrell and signed Raul Ibanez. Ibanez had a dismal year in Seattle in '08; then, so did everyone. Perhaps he rebounds. Hamels is still the best young pitcher in the NL (sorry, Lincecum), Jamie Moyer is still evidently alive, so they can still trot out a decent rotation, but it's difficult to repeat in MLB, and even more so as an NL team. Trouble here: Most of their guys got that long-term deal reward, so the only guy playing for a contract is Brett Myers. Then we have the Mets. This team does more choking than a Chuck Pahlaniuk novel. But here's the thing about the Mets: If all games ended after 7 innings, they would have won more than 100. This year, they picked up J.J. Putz and K-Rod. In effect, most games will be over after the seventh inning this year. The starters are solid (Santana raising the average to almost brilliant), the offense is good, the defense is there, and now they have a bullpen. If they can keep their hands from around their throats when Philly makes a run, they're in. Winner: Mets. Wild Card: Phillies.
NL Playoffs: Diamondbacks have the right rotation for a five-game series, but will have the worst record for a division champ. That will put them against the Mets, where anemic hitting meets Santana (twice, if necessary), so they go home in a few low scoring games. Phillies face the Cubs, and after a "here we go again" moment in Chicago, the Cubs remember that they're good, and chase them away. Cubs meet Mets in an heroic series: Seven games, extra innings, a few brawls, sarcastic press, inside pitches and beer, and a Cubs victory. NL World Series Rep: Cubs.
World Series: Cubs vs. Red Sox: Both have the pitching, hitting and defense to make this a great series, and since the Sox have rid themselves of the "curse" they should be an easy pick. But something funny has been happening in Chicago: For the longest time, they set out trying to find Jesus, who could come in and single-handedly win for them. They never found their Jesus, but they finally have 12 Disciples in place. As long as none of them starts to doubt, this is the year. That's right, Chicago Residents, prepare to flee the riots in Wrigleyville! CUBBIES WIN!!!
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